Fred's Commentary
I will make my comments this week bitter-sweet. All hell could break loose this coming Monday! If you have been following the news you know that any resolution to our dire debt problem has more likely than not….vanished. Even the possibility of a “Deal” being forged is a toss up, as if one of DC’s “Deals” will solve anything.
It seems to me that the market has been pricing in a “Deal”, which would allow the free money party to continue. A “Resolution” would most likely put a damper on any advances in market values. That would also put a damper on BO’s re-election dreams. On that basis alone, I pray for a sensible resolution with all the near term pain that comes with it.
Whatever direction the market takes, it would be a long awaited relief to see it continue in some direction. The chaos experienced thus far has been detrimental to our trend following philosophy. If a sell off ensues it could wipe out our current gain in one day. Please re-read last week’s commentary. Caution may be your best strategy as the political “Spit Ball Fight” continues to roil the markets, day after day, after day.
Your very frustrated Trend Timer,
Fred
Below is our scorecard for the year, and from our most recent Buy signal. I have added a new table in the Excel spreadsheet which will keep track of the Nasdaq-100 Index, and the primary investment vehicles which follow that index with nearly 100% correlation.
Long/Short Trading Strategy
Last 3 Years and from Last Buy Signal |
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Year-to-Date from 12/31/07 |
Since Last Buy Signal on 6/29/11 |
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Index |
Market |
STT |
STT x2 |
Market |
STT |
STT x2 |
S&P -400 |
17.0% |
100.9% |
227.3% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
4.0% |
Russell - 2000 |
11.7% |
85.1% |
173.1% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
5.3% |
Nasdaq - Comp |
7.8% |
75.9% |
152.4% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
8.6% |
Nasdaq - 100 |
16.5% |
74.2% |
143.9% |
5.9% |
5.9% |
11.8% |
S&P - 500 |
-7.1% |
55.9% |
109.0% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
5.8% |
Dow - 30 |
-2.8% |
37.7% |
68.4% |
3.4% |
3.4% |
6.8% |
Average |
7.2% |
71.6% |
145.7% |
3.5% |
3.5% |
7.1% |
Long/Cash Trading Strategy
Last 3 Years and from Last Buy Signal |
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Year-to-Date from 12/31/07 |
Since Last Buy Signal on 6/29/11 |
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Index |
Market |
STT |
STT x2 |
Market |
STT |
STT x2 |
S&P -400 |
17.0% |
86.1% |
205.9% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
4.0% |
Russell - 2000 |
11.7% |
74.9% |
166.3% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
5.3% |
Nasdaq - 100 |
16.5% |
69.5% |
154.3% |
5.9% |
5.9% |
11.8% |
Nasdaq - Comp |
7.8% |
63.3% |
136.1% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
8.6% |
S&P - 500 |
-7.1% |
41.1% |
81.9% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
5.8% |
Dow - 30 |
-2.8% |
32.8% |
63.1% |
3.4% |
3.4% |
6.8% |
Average |
7.2% |
61.3% |
134.6% |
3.5% |
3.5% |
7.1% |
STT Signals in 2011
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Trading Plan |
9-Sep-10 |
11-Mar-11 | 30-Mar-11 |
19-Apr-11 | 25-Apr-11 |
17-Jun-11 | 29-Jun-11 |
LONG/SHORT |
LONG
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SHORT | LONG
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SHORT | LONG
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SHORT | LONG
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LONG/CASH |
LONG
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CASH | LONG
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CASH | LONG
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CASH | LONG
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Weekly Reports from 2011
January |
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February |
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March |
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April |
Apr 29, 2011 | ||||
May |
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June |
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July |
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August |
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September |
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October |
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November |
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December |
Weekly Reports from 2010
January |
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February |
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March |
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April |
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May |
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June |
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July |
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August |
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September |
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October |
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November |
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December |
Weekly Reports from 2009
January |
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February |
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March |
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April |
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May |
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June |
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July |
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August |
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September |
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October |
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November |
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December |